Outcome of Tuesday Election--Our Predictions

I have to say I am happy that election season is ending. Presidential candidates have been campaigning for nearly two years. Our predictions will not make everyone happy but we are fairly confident that we will get it correct.

President---Obama wins 2-1 in Ulster County

Congress--Hinchey also by 2-1

Assembly--All incumbents win--Cahill 2-1, Kirwin 55-45, and Lopez is unopposed. Kirwin may lose Ulster County section of district but we believe he will hang on. His opponent was in trouble last year and Kirwin has not brought that up. This tells us that Kirwin's polling numbers are fine.

Senate--Bonacic breezes in like last year. Larkin wins but the Obama effect will make this closer. We think 55-45.

State Supreme Court--McGrath wins Ulster County by around 57-43. Judge Carpinello has support from both sides but Obama's coattails will help everyone.

Executive--Both candidates have been visible the past several months. Neither has run a particularly good race and are lucky there were no primaries, because neither would have survived. The race is going to be won by Mike Hein and I'd say it will be 60-40. Again the Obama effect will be to much to overcome for Bernardo.

Comptroller--For both parties this is the only race that could go either way. We predict an Auerbach win with about 55% of the vote. I know some are going to jump up and down screaming at this, but we believe the Obama wave will sweep Auerbach into office. Quigley has better credentials and would be all over the Democrats (which is good) making sure each penny was spent wisely. But it is hard for us to see any non incumbent Republican winning. If Quigley returns next time we could expect a different outcome.

The news is not all that glum for Republicans. They ran credible campaigns in an extremely tough environment for them. They will be disappointed election night but the groundwork has been laid for the 2009 election cycle.


When we say "09" cycle we feel that Republicans have shown they are alive in Ulster County. It will be nearly impossible to beat Nina Postupack next year and with the right candidates Republicans will have a good shot at taking over legislature.

Enough for today. Best of luck to all Tuesday.